Short positions on Hedera’s HBAR were concentrated above a key resistance that, if breached, placed roughly $5 million of shorts at risk. The stress point centred on $0.1035, a level analysts said required about a 12% rally from the then-prevailing downtrend to trigger mass liquidations.
Derivatives data compiled in early February 2026 revealed a notable imbalance in HBAR’s positioning: short contracts outweighed longs across several key price zones. This skew left bearish traders increasingly exposed in the event of a reversal. If HBAR were to break out of its downtrend and rally toward the $0.1035 resistance level, nearly $5 million in short positions could face liquidation, a dynamic that would likely accelerate upward momentum rather than simply reflect it.
A second concentration of short exposure was identified near $0.114, where analysts estimated roughly $4.5 million in additional potential liquidations. The clustering of these positions above current price levels suggested that sellers had grown confident in the prevailing downtrend. However, that same confidence created vulnerability: when shorts become crowded, even a modest breakout can trigger a cascade of forced buying.
In fact, the broader distribution of open interest and a bearish funding skew in perpetual futures reinforced the setup for a possible short squeeze. Should price push decisively higher, short sellers might be compelled to cover positions quickly, amplifying volatility. This scenario carried implications not only for active traders, but also for corporate treasuries and institutions managing leveraged exposure.
Hedera Hbar price Structure and possible capital flows
From a technical standpoint, immediate support was identified around $0.0901, with near-term resistance levels at $0.0938, $0.09507, and $0.10. In late January, some analyses had placed HBAR closer to $0.108 and pointed to Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 23.6% and 38.2% bands, as key decision zones. However, by early February, price action had drifted nearer to $0.0908, underscoring the persistence of the downtrend and a broader range-bound structure.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator had been trending downward for nearly two weeks and slipped into negative territory, signaling sustained net outflows. Typically, this type of capital behavior limits the durability of rallies unless inflows return convincingly. In other words, any upside breakout would likely need both technical momentum and renewed buying pressure to sustain itself.
For different market participants, the implications were clear but varied. A decisive move above $0.1035 could trigger rapid short covering, intensifying intraday swings. Treasuries holding leveraged HBAR exposure faced elevated tail risk around the $0.1035 and $0.114 liquidation clusters, where margin calls could compound volatility. Meanwhile, market makers and liquidity providers needed to remain alert to potential order-book gaps and slippage, especially in a squeeze scenario.
Ultimately, the key takeaway was straightforward: derivatives positioning had turned a technical breakout into a potential catalyst. A sustained reclaim of $0.1035 could transform a routine resistance test into a wave of forced buying. Conversely, failure to defend the $0.0901 support would leave HBAR vulnerable to further downside pressure.
