A Precarious Position at a Key Support Level
HBAR is currently trading at a pivotal point, having recently found support around the $0.16 mark. This level has become a technical focal point after the token experienced a sharp 11% decline between October 16 and 17, 2025. During this drop, the heaviest selling pressure pushed the price down from $0.17 to $0.16, but repeated rebounds at this level have so far established it as a firm, though tested, support zone.
The broader technical structure presents a conflict, which aligns with your observation of mixed signals. On one hand, the overall sentiment is still considered bearish, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned below the 200-day SMA, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral zone at 38.96. On the other hand, this neutral RSI reading suggests the asset is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for a move in either direction. The critical levels are now clearly defined: a solid resistance level has formed at $0.17, and the next significant hurdle is the $0.19 – $0.23 zone, which has acted as a barrier in recent weeks.
Conflicting Signals and a Potential Catalyst
The market is currently weighing several opposing forces, making the next move highly dependent on which factors gain dominance.
The case for a potential rebound is supported by signs of institutional interest. There have been notable instances of high-volume breakouts, such as on October 13, when a surge in trading volume to 15.65 million units propelled HBAR past the $0.19 resistance, indicating strong buying activity from larger players. Furthermore, involvement in high-level discussions with entities like SWIFT, Citigroup, and Germany’s Bundesbank on digital currency projects adds a layer of fundamental strength and long-term legitimacy to the Hedera network.
However, these positive factors are tempered by clear technical weaknesses. The prevailing “Fear” sentiment in the market, coupled with sell signals from most popular moving averages, indicates that the path of least resistance in the short term remains challenging. For the bullish scenario to play out, sustained buying volume is needed to overcome the established resistance levels.
The Path Ahead: Key Levels to Watch
For traders and treasury managers, navigating this environment requires a clear-eyed focus on a few key price levels and market behaviors.
The immediate and most critical level to watch is the $0.16 support. A confirmed and sustained hold above this level, accompanied by increasing volume, would be the first step toward building a recovery. The next significant test would be a reclaim of the $0.19 level. Achieving this could trigger a short squeeze, potentially fueling a move toward the $0.21 – $0.23 range and even up to $0.26.
Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies and the price experiences a daily close below the $0.16 support, it would signal a breakdown of the current consolidation. This could open the door for a deeper correction toward the next major support level, which you identified at $0.126.
