A Surge Amidst Institutional Validation
Hedera’s native token, HBAR, has indeed seen impressive gains, rallying over 14% this week and defying the broader market trend. A key driver behind this momentum is a major milestone for the project: the launch of a spot HBAR Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
The Canary HBAR ETF (ticker: HBR) debuted on the Nasdaq, attracting millions in inflows on its first day and signaling growing institutional and retail demand for regulated exposure to Hedera’s ecosystem. This event is seen as a significant validator for the network, which has long focused on enterprise-grade applications and regulatory compliance.
Diverging Signals: The Whale Activity Question
However, beneath the surface of this bullish price action, on-chain data suggests a note of caution. While retail traders and “smart money” indicators have shown optimism, there is evidence of large wallet holders, often called “whales,” behaving differently.
Data indicates that accounts holding over 100 million HBAR have reduced their collective holdings from 41.75% to 40.65% of the total supply in a short period. This represents an exit of at least 110 million HBAR, worth over $20 million. Such activity can signal that the largest players are using the price strength to take profits, potentially front-running a correction.
This creates a disconnect; while the ETF news fuels retail and institutional buying, whales appear to be quietly distributing their holdings.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, this divergence is reflected in the charts. A “hidden bearish divergence” has appeared on HBAR’s daily chart, where the price makes a lower high while the momentum indicator (RSI) makes a higher high. This pattern often signals the continuation of a prior downtrend.
For traders, key support levels are critical. The immediate support to watch is $0.189. A break below this could trigger a slide toward $0.168. If selling pressure accelerates, the next major support lies near $0.154, with a potential fall to $0.119 if that level fails.
While the ETF launch is a powerful long-term fundamental, the short-term technical and on-chain signals recommend caution. The market’s next move will likely depend on whether new retail and institutional buying volume can sufficiently offset the selling pressure from whales.
