The Hyperliquid ecosystem is approaching a significant test with the HYPE token unlock scheduled for November 29, 2025. The key question for investors is whether the project’s strong fundamentals can absorb the incoming supply, or if the rally will face a setback due to selling pressure.
A Closer Look at the Unlock
The upcoming event is a planned release of 9.92 million HYPE tokens to Core Contributors, representing 2.97% of the current circulating supply. This unlock is part of the protocol’s structured vesting schedule. While this specific release is relatively modest, it brings attention to the future supply dynamics, with a larger portion of the total supply set to vest between 2027 and 2028.
The market is sensitive to such events because they can increase the available tokens for trading, potentially leading to short-term selling pressure. This is especially relevant given the token’s current valuation metrics, which show a notable difference between its market capitalization and its fully diluted valuation (FDV).
The Forces at Play: Pressure vs. Stability
The market’s ability to handle the new supply hinges on a balance between potential selling pressure and powerful stabilizing mechanisms already in place.
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Potential for Selling Pressure: The primary concern is that recipients of the unlocked tokens may decide to sell, increasing the selling pressure on the market. Historical data shows that even strong tokens can experience volatility around such events. For instance, a past market incident on Hyperliquid led to auto-deleveraging losses, prompting the platform to implement protective measures like a hard cap on mark prices.
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Powerful Stabilizing Mechanisms: Hyperliquid has a significant counterweight to selling pressure: an aggressive, revenue-funded buyback program. An impressive 93% of the protocol’s revenue is allocated to buying back HYPE tokens from the open market. In August 2025 alone, the protocol generated $105 million in fees from a massive $357 billion in derivatives volume, creating a substantial war chest for these buybacks. The fund responsible for these operations has grown significantly, now holding tokens valued at over $1.5 billion, which helps create a self-reinforcing cycle of demand.
Market Context and Outlook
Hyperliquid is not entering this event from a position of weakness. The platform has established itself as a dominant force in the decentralized derivatives market, capturing over 80% of the decentralized perps market and achieving daily trading volumes that rival major centralized exchanges. This robust activity is the engine that drives the protocol’s revenue and, by extension, its buyback power.
Past unlocks have not destabilized the token’s long-term trajectory. For example, the initial large-scale unlock in November 2024 did not prevent HYPE from reaching an all-time high later in 2025, suggesting that strong fundamentals can outweigh supply-side concerns.
For traders and institutional treasuries, the period around November 29th will be critical. The market will be watching to see if the organic demand from the platform’s use and the systematic buybacks are strong enough to absorb the newly unlocked tokens seamlessly. While short-term volatility is possible, the event will ultimately test the resilience of Hyperliquid’s unique tokenomic model and its capacity to sustain long-term value.
