A potential rule change by global index provider MSCI is posing a significant threat to MicroStrategy, the company now known as Strategy Inc. JPMorgan has warned that a negative decision could trigger billions of dollars in forced selling of the firm’s stock, presenting the most substantial challenge yet to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused corporate strategy.
The Heart of the Matter: A Corporate Identify Crisis
The issue stems from a consultation MSCI launched to address how it should classify companies with balance sheets heavily concentrated in digital assets. The proposed rule would exclude firms from equity indices if their digital asset holdings comprise 50% or more of their total assets and represent the main business activity. MSCI and its clients are essentially debating whether such companies resemble operating businesses or investment vehicles, with the latter being ineligible for inclusion in these key stock benchmarks.
This reclassification directly targets Strategy’s core identity. Although the company still operates a business analytics software unit, it gains most market attention for its massive Bitcoin treasury, which now holds over 649,000 BTC. This “hybrid identity” has placed Strategy at the center of this regulatory debate, making it a test case for how the financial world will treat public firms using Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset.
Billions at Stake and a Domino Effect
The financial implications of an exclusion are stark. According to JPMorgan analysis, Strategy’s stock is currently held in major indices like the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World, with approximately $9 billion of its $59 billion market capitalization embedded in passive funds that track these benchmarks.
Should MSCI decide to remove the stock, it could trigger an estimated $2.8 billion in immediate outflows from passive funds that are mandated to mirror the index. The risk doesn’t end there. JPMorgan cautions that if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead, the total passive outflow could reach a staggering $8.8 billion. This comes at a vulnerable time for Strategy, as its stock has significantly underperformed Bitcoin recently, and the premium it once enjoyed over the value of its Bitcoin holdings has collapsed to its lowest level since the pandemic.
A Pivotal Decision and Its Wider Implications
The situation creates a critical inflection point for Strategy’s business model, which relies on issuing equity and debt at a premium to fund further Bitcoin purchases. Losing its index status could deal a reputational blow, raise funding costs, and reduce liquidity, making the stock less attractive to large institutional investors. This would challenge the “reflexive premium” that has powered Saylor’s strategy for years.
All eyes are now on January 15, 2026, when MSCI is expected to announce its final decision. The outcome will set a precedent, not just for Strategy, but for other public companies like MARA Holdings and Metaplanet that also hold sizable digital assets on their balance sheets. It represents a fundamental test of whether Bitcoin treasury companies can maintain access to the vast pools of passive capital or face reclassification and exclusion from the mainstream financial landscape they sought to join.
