Market Share, Volume and the Role of Sports
Kalshi has surged to dominate the global prediction market with 62.2% of total volume, while its primary competitor, Polymarket, holds 37%. This shift is largely fueled by the NFL season, which has driven weekly trading volumes exceeding $500 million. Kalshi’s monthly volume reached $1.3 billion in September 2025, outpacing Polymarket’s $773 million. The platform’s strategic partnerships, including a collaboration with Robinhood for college basketball and NBA markets, have expanded its reach to retail users. Additionally, niche contracts like the “tush push” play in NFL games have sparked both user engagement and regulatory scrutiny, highlighting how real-time events influence market activity.
Regulatory, Investment and Market Implications
Despite its growth, Kalshi faces significant regulatory challenges. Authorities in Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and Massachusetts have issued cease-and-desist orders or lawsuits, alleging the platform operates as an unregistered sportsbook. These legal battles could shape its future operations, particularly as it expands into crypto integrations via partnerships with Solana and Base. Meanwhile, investor interest remains strong: Kalshi’s valuation is near $5 billion, while Polymarket is valued between $9 billion and $10 billion. The NFL’s concerns about market integrity underscore broader tensions between prediction markets and traditional sports betting frameworks.
Looking ahead, key milestones include resolutions to state-level regulatory disputes and potential funding rounds for both platforms. The NFL season’s impact has not only redistributed market share but also intensified scrutiny from institutions and traders monitoring the convergence of sports and financial markets. As prediction markets evolve, their trajectory will hinge on regulatory clarity, investor confidence, and their ability to balance innovation with compliance.
