Lighter’s LIT token moved into a volatile post‑launch phase after its December debut, trading near $3.11 on January 6, 2026 as market action swung between heavy sell pressure and a buyback‑driven bounce. The immediate relevance is clear: airdrop dilution and a bearish divergence set up the conditions for a roughly 15% pullback, putting the established post‑launch low at the center of trader risk management.
Within 24 hours of launch LIT plunged from its opening price into a sharp sell‑off, falling to a post‑launch low of $2.45. The move tracked a large airdrop distribution—25% of supply, or 250 million tokens, sent to hundreds of thousands of addresses with no vesting—creating immediate selling pressure that overwhelmed early liquidity.
The token debuted with a high fully diluted valuation relative to circulating market cap and recorded heavy volume at launch; those conditions compounded downside risk as short‑term holders exited.
Market participants flagged the projected unlock schedule for 2026–2028 as a structural headwind: circulating supply is expected to expand materially over the next 24 months, which will increase supply pressure unless demand grows commensurately.
Technical signals and the buyback response
Technical indicators confirmed weakness in the immediate post‑launch moves. On January 1, LIT exhibited a bearish divergence—price made gains while Chaikin Money Flow signaled outflows—preceding the initial drop. That pattern signaled the upward moves lacked conviction.
In response, the project activated a promised treasury buyback on January 6. The buyback coincided with an intraday rally that sent LIT about 15–18% higher from the nadir and briefly pushed money‑flow indicators back toward inflows. The technical picture therefore shifted from pure distribution to a contested range where buyers and sellers are actively re‑pricing risk.
For traders and treasuries the immediate lesson is risk management: leverage and position size will materially amplify outcomes as tokenomics continue to put supply on the market. Market observers are splitting between a supply‑driven retracement and a buyback‑fuelled relief rally; conviction will hinge on whether Lighter can sustain demand through the coming unlock schedule.
Investors are now watching the coming weeks closely — the short‑term window from January 9, and the analyst projection toward February 3, will act as a practical test of whether LIT can absorb ongoing unlocks and the legacy effects of the airdrop, or if the token will revisit lower consolidation near the post‑launch low.
