Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, is confronting a critical challenge that threatens the core of its Bitcoin-centric business model. Its potential removal from major stock indexes underscores the growing pains of a traditional company betting its future on digital assets.
The Threat of Index Exclusion
The immediate risk stems from a formal consultation launched by index provider MSCI in the autumn of 2025. The proposal aims to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings make up more than 50% of their total assets and represent their main business activity—a definition that fits Strategy perfectly. This has placed the company under intense scrutiny, with a final decision expected by January 15, 2026.
The stakes are enormous. Analysis from JPMorgan warns that if MSCI proceeds with the exclusion, it could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in forced selling of Strategy’s stock by passive funds that track the index. The situation could escalate dramatically if other index providers, such as those for the Nasdaq 100, follow MSCI’s lead. In a worst-case scenario, total passive fund outflows could reach a staggering $8.8 billion. Such a massive sell-off would severely strain the stock’s liquidity, increase its volatility, and erode its credibility among institutional investors.
Strategy’s Precarious Position
This threat emerges at a difficult time for the company. Strategy’s entire model relies on using proceeds from equity and debt offerings to buy more Bitcoin, a “flywheel” that only works if its stock trades at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, this crucial premium has collapsed. The stock has fallen more than 60% from its peak, and its market value has compressed to nearly parity with the underlying Bitcoin it holds. This erodes Strategy’s ability to raise new capital cheaply and weakens the foundation of its entire accumulation strategy.
In response to the criticism, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has vigorously defended the company. He argues that Strategy is not a passive investment fund but an operational company with a legitimate software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as “productive capital”. Despite the market pressure and regulatory challenges, Saylor maintains that the company’s “conviction in Bitcoin is unshakable”.
A Pivotal Moment for Digital Asset Treasuries
The outcome of MSCI’s decision will have implications far beyond a single company. Strategy has become a test case for how traditional financial markets classify and treat public companies that hold digital assets as their primary treasury reserve. A decision to exclude Strategy could set a precedent, potentially limiting access to passive capital for an entire emerging class of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms and reshaping the landscape for corporate Bitcoin exposure.
The coming weeks will be decisive. As January 15, 2026, approaches, investors are watching closely to see whether Strategy’s pioneering model can withstand this structural challenge or if it will be reclassified, triggering a significant revaluation of its stock and sending ripples through the broader crypto market.
