Michael Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, is tempering expectations for a meteoric year-end Bitcoin rally. He recently stated that Bitcoin is more likely to finish 2025 trading between $100,000 and $125,000, expressing significant doubt that it can reach the $250,000 target some optimists are projecting.
He attributes this more conservative outlook to a market that has lost some of its momentum. Following a major deleveraging event that wiped out retail traders and market makers, Novogratz noted that liquidity has thinned, and the market needs time to “heal itself and regain narrative and regain momentum”. For Bitcoin to achieve a 133% surge to $250,000 in the remaining weeks of the year, he believes it would require “a heck of a lot of crazy stuff”, pointing to a need for significant external catalysts.
Catalysts for a Surprise Rally
While his base case is cautious, Novogratz sees a path to new highs if one or two key catalysts materialize. He specifically pointed to potential political pressure on the Federal Reserve for premature action and the passing of the CLARITY Act, a major crypto market structure bill moving through Congress. A near-certain Fed rate cut expected on October 29 is also seen as a potential tailwind, though likely insufficient for the $250,000 target on its own.
A Divided Market Outlook
Novogratz’s stance places him at the more cautious end of the expert spectrum. Other prominent figures in the crypto space, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, maintain their conviction that Bitcoin can reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2025. This divergence highlights the ongoing debate about the market’s near-term direction.
A Shift in Institutional Strategy
This price forecast aligns with Novogratz’s broader view that the initial wave of companies being created solely to hold crypto on their balance sheets has “probably peaked”. The focus is now shifting toward which of the existing treasury companies, like BitMine and SharpLink, have sustainable models and can scale effectively in an increasingly competitive landscape.
For traders and treasury teams, Novogratz’s comments suggest a period of consolidation may be ahead. The market’s next major move appears to hinge on concrete regulatory progress or unexpected macroeconomic shifts, making the progress of the CLARITY Act and Fed policy the key metrics to watch for the remainder of the year.
