Pi Network’s PI hovered around the $0.14 area, touching a recent low of $0.1300 as traders tested a critical support band between $0.1327 and $0.15. The test matters because its outcome will determine whether selling pressure from scheduled token unlocks overwhelms attempts at technical recovery.
The Relative Strength Index plunged to historic lows and the MACD setup could produce a bullish crossover if selling eases, which would open targets near PI $0.175–$0.180 and the psychological $0.20 level. A break above the 50-day EMA at about $0.1920 would signal a more durable recovery.
Conversely, failure to defend the $0.1327–$0.1300 zone would likely accelerate downward pressure toward the token’s original listing price near $0.10, reflecting thin liquidity and concentrated sell flows.
Market sentiment has tilted decisively bearish, while on-chain flows and upcoming protocol events create a high-variance setup for short-term holders and treasuries.
PI supply dynamics, unlocks and on-chain positioning
According to data cited in reporting, more than 133 million PI are scheduled for release across February, with roughly 215 million additional tokens expected over the next 30 days. A tranche of about 23 million is due on february 13, which will test whether current demand can absorb fresh sell-side supply.
Reports also indicate a single large holder has accumulated roughly 331 million PI, a concentration that could either provide underpinning support or amplify volatility if that position moves. Meanwhile, the project has been advancing its roadmap: a MiCA-compliant whitepaper was filed in October 2025 and the protocol plans to distribute KYC validator rewards in March, initiatives intended to increase network utility and participation.
Price projections remain speculative and wide-ranging. Market summaries show bullish 2026 targets clustered around $0.295–$0.536 on favorable execution, while bearish scenarios fall below $0.10.
Two near-term events will shape the market: the token unlocks, including the 23 million tranche on february 13, and the planned KYC validator reward distribution in March. If unlocks outpace demand, PI will likely revisit lower support levels; if selling subsides and validator rewards stimulate activity, a technical rally toward the mid-$0.10s to $0.20 range becomes feasible.
For traders, leverage amplifies both outcomes—tight risk management is essential. For treasuries and long-term holders, the key metric is whether ecosystem adoption and on-chain utility begin to absorb unlocked supply; absent that shift, price will remain hostage to timing and scale of sell-side flows.
