Amid a steep and sustained price decline, retail investors are showing renewed interest in Pi Coin (PI), attempting to buy near what they perceive as recent lows. This strategy, often described as trying to “catch a falling knife”, involves entering a market before a clear reversal is established and carries significant risks for both the token and the participants involved. This scenario forces a critical risk-versus-reward calculation for anyone monitoring these retail flows into an asset under heavy selling pressure.
A Textbook Falling Knife Pattern Emerges
The Pi Coin chart presents a clear and concerning picture. The token’s price has fallen roughly 32% since late November 2025, firmly placing it in a bearish trend. It is trading below all major exponential moving averages, a key sign that momentum remains decisively negative. Every attempt at a rally has failed at these resistance levels, fitting the classic definition of a falling knife—a market making consistent lower lows with no visible base. Analysts note that the completion of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern has opened a technical path toward the $0.169 level, which would establish a new all-time low.
The Retail-Institutional Divide Deepens
Beneath the surface of the falling price, a telling divergence is occurring. Short-term buying pressure from retail or smaller traders is detectable on lower timeframes. However, this activity is being overwhelmingly countered by larger capital flows. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks the movement of big money, remains stuck in negative territory. This indicates that net capital is still leaving Pi Coin, suggesting that large holders and institutions are using any stability or retail buying interest as an opportunity to exit their positions. This creates a dangerous dynamic where retail optimism is met with institutional skepticism and selling.
Navigating a High-Risk Environment
For traders and investors, this environment creates specific challenges. Execution becomes difficult, with the potential for high slippage and unpredictable order fills due to potentially thin order books. The key for any sustained recovery is not just retail dip-buying, but a fundamental shift in capital flow. Pi Coin needs to see the CMF indicator break and hold above the zero line to signal that large-scale buying is returning. Until then, any bounce is fragile. Market participants have identified critical levels to watch: a break below $0.174 could accelerate a drop toward $0.130, while a reclaim of $0.213 is needed to begin easing the bearish pressure.
While the Pi Network continues to build its ecosystem with developments like new Mainnet applications and AI-integrated KYC processes, the market is currently focused on stark technical realities and macroeconomic pressures. For retail buyers drawn to the low prices, the paramount lesson is caution. Attempting to catch a falling knife requires precise timing and carries a high probability of further loss. A more prudent approach may be to wait for the market to show concrete signs of stabilization—such as a bullish shift in momentum indicators and sustained buying across wallet sizes—before treating lower prices as a durable entry signal. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is a bottom being formed or merely a pause in a longer decline.
