TL;DR
- Polymarket closed its largest market to date with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, generating substantial profits for some users.
- The trading volume on Polymarket exceeded $3 billion, putting the platform ahead of its competitor Kalshi, which recorded $430 million in the same period.
- The platform highlighted the accuracy of its predictions compared to traditional polls, citing the “wisdom of the markets.”
Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, has concluded its largest market to date with the resolution of bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, generating millions in profits for its most ambitious bettors.
Among these investors stands out the so-called “Trump Whale,” who has become the most profitable trader in Polymarket’s history, earning approximately $47 million in election-related profits. According to Polymarket Analytics, this user made $21 million from Donald Trump’s victory, $12 million from his popular vote win, and another $6 million by betting against Kamala Harris in the same arena, along with smaller profits from various key states.
Another user, identified as “zxgngl,” also achieved earnings of $11 million by betting on Trump’s victory, making them the second most successful trader in this electoral market on Polymarket. In contrast, the platform also recorded considerable losses for some participants; the two least profitable users accumulated losses totaling nearly $12 million.
Over $3 Billion in Trades
During the course of the election, Polymarket’s electoral market experienced unprecedented trading volume, surpassing $3 billion. This volume places Polymarket well above its main competitor, Kalshi, which managed approximately $430 million during the same period.
Polymarket also seized the opportunity to emphasize the accuracy of its markets compared to traditional polling and analysis. In the last week of October, Polymarket placed Trump’s victory odds at 67%, while Kalshi estimated a slightly lower probability at 61%.
Polymarket Demonstrates Its Accuracy
The platform issued a statement asserting that its predictions proved to be more accurate and reliable than analyses from polls, media, and experts, citing the “wisdom of the markets” as a key factor in anticipating electoral outcomes.
This case strengthens Polymarket’s position as an alternative source of information and prediction in high-stakes political events. The platform has emphasized its commitment to offering transparent, high-quality data, positioning itself at the forefront of onchain prediction markets and gaining credibility as a reliable resource at a time when accuracy in forecasting political events is increasingly valued.
