Solana is currently navigating one of its most challenging periods, caught between a severe market-wide sell-off that has pushed it to five-month lows and underlying fundamental strength that offers a glimmer of long-term hope. The convergence of intense selling pressure and critical technical levels has created a precarious situation for the asset in the near term.
A Market Under Pressure
The sell-off has been significant, with Solana’s price declining sharply from its recent highs. As of late November 2025, SOL is trading around $130, a level that represents a drop of over 30% in a single month. This downturn has had a dramatic impact on investors; data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals that nearly 80% of Solana’s circulating supply is now held at a loss. This means the vast majority of holders who bought SOL are currently seeing red on their investments, which increases the psychological pressure to sell and potentially cut their losses.
This pressure is compounded by a significant risk in the derivatives market. Analysis from CoinGlass indicates that if Solana’s price falls below $124.40, it could trigger the liquidation of approximately $239 million in long positions. Such a cascade of forced selling would likely accelerate the downward move, creating a volatile feedback loop. The selling pressure has been exacerbated by large-scale transfers from “whale” wallets to exchanges, including one notable transfer of 280,000 SOL (worth about $39 million at the time), signaling that major players are offloading their holdings.
A Story of Two Solanas: Technical Weakness vs. Fundamental Strength
The current moment presents a stark contrast between Solana’s shaky technical picture and its robust fundamental activity. From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook is fragile. The price has broken below key support levels, and if it fails to reclaim the $140 resistance zone, analysts warn that further declines toward $120 and even $108 are possible. The immediate future hinges on the bulls’ ability to defend the support zone between $128 and $130.
However, looking beyond the price chart reveals a more resilient ecosystem. Despite the market panic, Solana’s network continues to show strong usage. Its Total Value Locked (TVL) remains substantial at over $4.5 billion, and it consistently processes thousands of transactions per second with low fees. Furthermore, institutional interest has not wavered. Spot Solana ETFs have attracted significant inflows, accumulating over $719 million in net positive flows since their launch, demonstrating a clear vote of confidence from institutional investors who are looking past the short-term volatility.
Navigating the Path Ahead
For investors, Solana’s trajectory will be determined by the battle between these opposing forces. In the short term, the market is dominated by fear and technicals. The critical level to watch is the $124.40 liquidation threshold; a break below could lead to a rapid, sharp decline. For any sustained recovery to take hold, Solana needs to achieve a strong daily close above the $140 resistance level, which could then open the path for a move back toward $150.
The long-term outlook is more nuanced. While operational challenges like past network outages remain a concern, the continued growth in institutional adoption and strong on-chain activity suggest the ecosystem is far from crumbling. The current price action, though painful, may be viewed in hindsight as a necessary market correction that shakes out excess leverage, setting the stage for a more stable foundation for future growth. For now, the market holds its breath, waiting to see if technical support or selling pressure will win the day.
