A Spot-Driven Recovery Faces Key Tests
HBAR is showing signs of stabilization after a significant downturn, with its recovery primarily fueled by direct purchases of the asset (spot buying). However, this rebound faces a critical challenge: a notable lack of participation from traders using borrowed money (futures), creating a split market dynamic.
The recent price action has brought key technical levels into focus. HBAR is currently working to establish $0.188 as a support floor. The immediate resistance to watch is the $0.230 level, which is the breakout point from a three-month descending wedge pattern. A decisive and sustained close above this ceiling is crucial to confirm a shift in momentum and potentially open a path toward $0.242.
The Dueling Signals of Cash Flow and Liquidity
This recovery is characterized by conflicting signals from different market metrics, highlighting the fragility of the current uptrend.
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Spot Buying vs. Futures Caution: The bounce is a classic example of spot buyers stepping in to acquire coins at what they perceive as discounted prices. However, the futures market has not followed suit. The total value of open futures contracts (Open Interest) remains stagnant, reflecting a clear reluctance among leveraged traders to place new bullish bets. This absence of futures demand removes a significant source of buying power and can make upward moves harder to sustain.
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Conflicting Technical Indicators: This divergence is visible in the technical indicators. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above 50, indicating improving short-term momentum, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has recently dipped below zero. The CMF measures the flow of money in and out of an asset, and a negative reading suggests that despite the price increase, liquidity is actually being withdrawn from HBAR. This signals underlying uncertainty and warns that the rally could lack staying power.
The Path Ahead for HBAR
The market’s next move will likely be determined by whether spot demand can remain strong enough to overcome the current inertia.
For the bullish case to prevail, HBAR needs to see a convincing breakout above the $0.230 resistance, ideally accompanied by a return of volume and interest in the futures market to add depth and momentum to the move. Until then, the price action is likely to remain volatile and sensitive to shifts in spot market sentiment. Traders and institutions should monitor these key technical levels and the behavior of futures open interest for clues on the sustainability of this recovery.
