Despite a significant market shakeout in October 2025, Standard Chartered Bank reaffirms its bullish stance, projecting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year. The bank’s analysis suggests the recent crash, while dramatic, has ultimately made the market healthier.
A Dramatic Reset Paves the Way for Growth
In mid-October 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp downturn. Bitcoin’s price plunged from above $121,000 to as low as $106,000, a drop of about 13%. This event was largely triggered by a wave of forced selling in the derivatives market, leading to over $19 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated in a single day.
Analysts at Standard Chartered, led by Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick, interpret this violent liquidation as a necessary purge. They argue that this event scraped away dangerous levels of speculative excess and “removed dangerous borrowed money positions”, creating a more stable foundation for price growth by eliminating overleveraged bets that could cause future cascading sell-offs.
The Bullish Case for $200,000
Standard Chartered’s confidence in its $200,000 year-end target is rooted in several key factors, with institutional adoption at the forefront.
A primary driver is the continued strong demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick points out that these funds have seen nearly $50 billion in net inflows and has stated he expects “at least another $20 billion by year-end”, a level of demand that would make the $200,000 forecast achievable. This institutional interest is also reflected in corporate treasuries, with several publicly listed companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
Furthermore, Standard Chartered anticipates that macroeconomic uncertainty will work in Bitcoin’s favor. The analyst notes that a potential prolonged U.S. government shutdown could act as a significant catalyst, increasing demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against political gridlock and systemic risk.
A Note of Caution in a Volatile Market
While the bullish narrative is compelling, it’s important to acknowledge contrasting views in the market. Some analysts express skepticism that Bitcoin can more than double in price in the remaining months of the year.
The core of this skepticism revolves around trading volume. One analyst warned that without a substantial increase in buying volume, such a dramatic price surge is unrealistic, stating that the probability of reaching $200,000 is “extremely low” without this supporting activity. This highlights that the market recovery, while showing signs of strength, may still be fragile.
The path to $200,000 is not guaranteed. The market remains susceptible to macroeconomic shocks and the very high levels of leverage that still exist in the system. For corporate treasuries and investors, this means carefully monitoring key metrics like ETF inflow data, derivatives market open interest, and overall market liquidity to gauge the momentum and sustainability of any price rally.
