The final week of November 2025 is set to test the crypto market’s resilience as it digests over $566 million in token unlocks, with three major events taking center stage. How the markets for Jupiter (JUP), Plasma (XPL), and Hyperliquid (HYPE) absorb this new supply will be a critical lesson in tokenomics, investor sentiment, and short-term price discovery.
A Closer Look at the Unlocks
The scale and context of each unlock vary significantly, painting a diverse picture of potential market impact.
Scheduled for November 29, Hyperliquid’s unlock is the week’s most substantial event in dollar terms. The release of 9.92 million HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $327 million, is allocated to core contributors. While this introduces the risk of insider selling, the protocol’s fundamental backing is strong. Hyperliquid directs over 93% of its protocol revenue—generated from massive derivatives trading volume—toward buying back and burning HYPE tokens. This creates a powerful deflationary mechanism that could help counterbalance the new supply entering the market.
Arriving on November 25, Plasma’s unlock of 88.89 million XPL tokens, worth about $17.5 million, represents a significant 4.74% of its circulating supply. This event occurs in a challenging context, with the token’s price having fallen sharply by 76% over the previous 90 days. Such bearish momentum, combined with the relatively large percentage of circulating supply being unlocked, increases the token’s vulnerability to further selling pressure, as new supply may simply outstrip weak demand.
Scheduled for November 28, Jupiter’s unlock appears more modest in scale. The release of 53.47 million JUP tokens is valued at around $12.8 million, representing just 1.69% of its circulating supply. Furthermore, Jupiter’s community has taken proactive steps to manage its token supply. A recent governance-approved burn of 130 million JUP tokens, alongside a protocol policy that uses 50% of fee revenue for buybacks, demonstrates a committed effort to create scarcity and support the token’s value. These factors may help cushion the price impact of its unlock.
Navigating the Impact
For traders and investors, the immediate focus is on the market’s capacity to absorb this incoming supply. The key risk lies in a simple imbalance: if the new tokens are sold into the market faster than new buyers can absorb them, it will create downward price pressure. This effect can be amplified in derivatives markets through liquidations.
However, not all unlocks are created equal. Projects like Jupiter and Hyperliquid, with active on-chain support mechanisms such as buybacks and burns, are better equipped to mitigate selling pressure. Their actions convert protocol revenue into consistent token demand. In contrast, assets like Plasma, which are already battling poor sentiment and a history of selling, face a greater risk of an amplified decline.
Successfully navigating this week requires more than just watching price charts. Monitoring on-chain flows to see where the unlocked tokens are moving, watching for announcements of additional team lock-ups, and gauging order book depth will be essential for calibrating risk management strategies. The week of November 25 will serve as a real-time test of the effectiveness of each project’s tokenomics and the conviction of its holders.
