Tom Lee of Fundstrat has indeed recalibrated his year-end Bitcoin forecast, moving his previous firm target of $250,000 to a more conditional range. His revised outlook reflects a pragmatic response to recent market turbulence but retains a fundamentally bullish core.
Lee’s Revised Bitcoin Forecast
In late November 2025, Tom Lee formally moderated his highly optimistic Bitcoin prediction. He has shifted from confidently advocating for a $250,000 price target to projecting that Bitcoin will finish the year “above $100,000”. While this is a significant reduction, it’s worth noting that in other recent comments, he has expressed a belief that Bitcoin could still reach a range of $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year, framing the former $250,000 target as a less certain possibility.
This revision means that Lee now classifies a retest or break of Bitcoin’s October all-time high of around $125,100 as a “maybe”. His optimism for Ethereum remains strong, with forecasts for it to hit $7,000 by year-end, bolstered by exploding stablecoin volumes and all-time high application revenues on its network.
The Catalysts for a Cautious Outlook
Lee’s adjustment is a direct response to a major market disruption in early October. He attributed the shift to a “glitch” on a major exchange, likely Binance, which triggered a cascade of automatic liquidations. This event, combined with a separate $19 billion market liquidation sparked by new U.S. tariff announcements, caused Bitcoin’s price to drop from its $126,000 peak to a low of $80,500. Lee believes the market is still consolidating and healing from these simultaneous shocks, which has introduced greater short-term uncertainty.
The Bullish Pillars That Remain
Despite the tempered expectations, Lee’s thesis for a strong year-end performance is still intact and rests on several key pillars. He anticipates that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would create a favorable environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. He also points to positive Q4 seasonality, noting that crypto markets have historically performed well in the final quarter of the year.
Furthermore, Lee highlights strong fundamental metrics, such as the record-breaking volume of stablecoins on the Ethereum network, as signals of robust underlying health and adoption that should eventually be reflected in prices. He has also suggested that large-scale gold purchases by stablecoin issuers like Tether could help establish a higher long-term price floor for Bitcoin by strengthening the overall reserve ecosystem for digital assets.
Navigating the Current Market Landscape
For traders and investors, Lee’s revised forecast underscores the importance of navigating a market that is showing signs of fragility. The path to his bullish targets is now seen as more conditional and probabilistic. While long-term fundamentals like institutional adoption through ETFs remain supportive, the market is currently grappling with low liquidity and the lingering effects of recent liquidations.
In essence, Tom Lee still believes Bitcoin is headed for a significant year-end rally, but the journey will be more cautious than initially thought. His revised prediction balances a recognition of recent market shocks with a continued belief in the asset’s strong underlying fundamentals.
