The digital asset XRP is currently trading near $1.86, reflecting an accumulated loss close to 15% over the last month. According to the recent XRP price technical analysis, the asset remains trapped in a descending channel that projects a 41% breakdown risk. Uncertainty dominates investor sentiment right now while vital support levels are being put to the test. This information comes from Ananda Banerjee’s analytical report, which highlights the contradiction between holder behaviors.
In this regard, on-chain data shows that long-term investors have resumed accumulation after weeks of selling. On December 29, this group acquired 15.90 million tokens, marking a 76% increase in just 48 hours. This constant flow of institutional capital seeks to stabilize the price against external bearish pressure. However, the technical structure of the market remains fragile in the absence of a confirmed bullish breakout.
Likewise, short-term buyers have increased their share of the total supply, going from 9.58% to 12.32%. Although this group usually drives rapid upward moves, it is also the first to liquidate positions in the face of volatility. The entry of new retail capital generates friction internally, preventing a sustained price advance. The struggle between different investor cohorts defines the uncertain direction the cryptocurrency is taking at the end of the year.
Will small buyers manage to stop the massive whale distribution?
On the other hand, large holders or “whales” have chosen to significantly reduce their portfolios during recent sessions. The group holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP alone liquidated assets valued at approximately $186 million. This massive distribution offsets the buying efforts of retail investors and long-term holders. The imbalance between supply and demand blocks any attempt at technical recovery above psychological resistance levels.
Furthermore, the market is currently at a crossroads where the $1.79 level is critical to avoid a collapse. If the asset manages to stay above this point, it could attempt a push toward the $1.98 resistance. Surpassing this technical barrier would invalidate the predominant bearish structure that has punished the token since October. The success of this recovery will depend exclusively on the return of confidence from large capital players.
What will happen if the $1.79 support fails to hold the price?
Nonetheless, the risk of a drop toward $1.27 remains latent if current demand levels fail. A daily close below $1.48 would confirm the channel breakout and accelerate forced position liquidations. Analysts warn of a possible capitulation event if whales continue their unrestricted selling cycle. Monitoring trading volumes will be fundamental for traders looking to protect their assets during these weeks.
Therefore, the outlook for the asset is complex and requires clear confirmation to change the current negative narrative. While accumulation by long-term holders is a positive sign, it is not enough to reverse the trend on its own. The immediate future of the price is linked to institutional behavior and global market stability. Investors must prepare for high volatility as the new operating ranges for the next cycle are defined.
