XRP is currently at a critical technical juncture, with its ability to hold above the $3.09 resistance level likely determining the next significant price move. This battle between bulls and bulls is taking place amidst a landmark event for the asset: the launch of the first US spot XRP ETF, which began trading today, November 13, 2025.
A Launch and a Technical Test
The approval of the Canary Capital XRP ETF (ticker: XRPC) by Nasdaq marks a pivotal moment for XRP’s integration into traditional finance. This new avenue for institutional investment has created a wave of optimism. However, the price action reveals a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic; XRP traded near $2.39 following the certification news, showing that the initial excitement has been met with profit-taking. This places even greater importance on the current test of the $3.09 level, a resistance point that has historically triggered rejections.
The Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
The market’s direction now hinges on whether XRP can achieve a sustained breakout.
A confirmed and decisive daily close above the $3.09 resistance would signal a major structural shift and likely unlock further upward momentum. The immediate technical targets in such a scenario are $3.20 and $3.40. A strong breakout could even pave the way for a push towards $3.65 and in more optimistic mid-term projections, the $5.00 region.
Conversely, if XRP fails to conquer this level and faces another rejection, the risk of a deeper correction increases. In this case, the crucial support level to watch is $2.27. A break below this support could invalidate the current bullish momentum and trigger a decline toward $2.20 or even $2.06.
Key Market Dynamics to Watch
Several factors are contributing to the current market tension. On-chain data reveals a fascinating divergence in investor behavior. The week before the ETF announcement, over 216 million XRP (worth ~$556 million) were withdrawn from exchanges, which typically signals that investors are moving assets into long-term storage—a bullish sign. Conversely, large holders, or “whales”, reduced their holdings by 10 million XRP right before the launch, indicating profit-taking by some major players.
For traders and treasury managers, the immediate focus should be on the price action around the $3.09 level and the $2.27 support. The evolution of trading volume will be key; a breakout with high volume is more likely to be sustained. Additionally, monitoring the initial flows into the new spot ETF (XRPC) will provide critical data on the strength of institutional demand, which will be a fundamental driver for XRP’s valuation in the coming weeks.
