XRP is navigating a treacherous technical landscape, caught between bearish chart patterns and a potential institutional safety net. After surrendering the critical $2.07 support level, the token now faces a precarious test of lower supports near $2.05, with analysts warning that failure to hold could trigger a steeper decline. This recent weakness is part of a broader 13% pullback in November, highlighting the intense selling pressure that has erased much of the explosive gains seen at the start of the year.
Bearish Signals and a Warning from the Charts
The technical picture for XRP has grown increasingly concerning. Analysis from June 2025 highlighted a significant bearish signal: a confirmed “death cross”, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, a classic indicator of deteriorating medium-term momentum. This was compounded by the price action hovering at the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, a precarious position that, if broken, has historically preceded sharp downturns in other major cryptocurrencies.
More recently, the price has been compressed into a narrowing trading range, a pattern that typically precedes a decisive breakout in either direction. Key overhead resistance is firmly established between $2.44 and $2.46, a zone that aligns with a major cost basis for many holders and has repeatedly capped recovery attempts. For any meaningful bullish reversal to gain credibility, XRP must first reclaim the $2.30 level and then achieve a sustained breakout above this $2.45 ceiling.
The Institutional Counterbalance: ETFs and Treasury Strategies
Despite the gloomy charts, a powerful countervailing force has emerged: unprecedented institutional demand. The launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs has opened a new channel for capital, with these funds attracting over $640 million in net inflows during November alone. This institutional appetite is part of a larger strategic shift, exemplified by initiatives like the newly announced Evernorth fund, which aims to raise over $1 trillion to build the world’s largest institutional treasury of XRP, with backing from Ripple itself and major players like Japan’s SBI Holdings. These moves signal a growing view of XRP as a strategic reserve asset, similar to Bitcoin’s role for companies like MicroStrategy.
Navigating the Stalemate Between Technicals and Flows
Currently, XRP is trapped in a stalemate. On-chain data reveals that long-term holders (those holding for 1-3 years) have been reducing their positions, creating a persistent headwind for the price. This selling pressure from dedicated supporters clashes directly with the fresh demand from institutional ETFs and treasury funds.
The immediate path forward hinges on resolving this conflict. A failure to hold support near $2.05, exacerbated by continued Bitcoin weakness, could validate the bearish technical warnings and open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, if institutional inflows can persistently absorb the selling from long-term holders, XRP may finally muster the strength to challenge and break through the formidable $2.45 resistance. For now, the token trades in a tense equilibrium, its next major move dependent on whether the weight of institutional capital can finally overpower the gravity of a damaged chart.
