XRP is currently caught in a tense battle between significant selling pressure from large holders and the potential for a massive influx of institutional capital, creating a volatile and uncertain landscape for traders and treasury desks.
The Weight of Whale Selling
A major factor currently weighing on XRP’s price is a consistent and substantial sell-off by large holders, commonly known as “whales”. Recent on-chain data reveals a striking trend: wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have sold off a staggering 440 million tokens over the past month, representing a value of approximately $1.25 billion. This has resulted in an average of roughly $50 million in XRP being sold daily, creating persistent downward pressure on its price.
This selling is not happening in isolation; a significant amount of this XRP is being moved to centralized exchanges, which is often a precursor to selling. The market impact has been direct, pushing XRP below the crucial psychological level of $3.00 and threatening key support zones between $2.81 and $2.70. Analysts warn that if the selling persists and price breaks below this support, it could trigger a steeper decline toward $2.20.
The Glimmer of Hope: A Potential Spot ETF
Acting as a counterbalance to this selling pressure is the strong market anticipation for a spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Prediction markets and analysts currently place the odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving one of the several pending applications at between 83% and 95%. The final decision deadlines for these ETFs are clustered between October 17 and 25, 2025.
The potential impact of an approval is considered monumental. Estimates project that a spot ETF could unlock anywhere from $3 billion to $8 billion in new institutional investments. This level of inflow could fundamentally shift the supply and demand balance, potentially doubling XRP’s market capitalization and driving its price toward $4 or even $5.
A Market at a Crossroads
The central conflict for XRP is the timing of these two powerful forces. The whale exodus is happening now, while the ETF approval, however likely, is a future event that has been complicated by a U.S. government shutdown. This shutdown has left the SEC with a skeleton staff, raising concerns that the decision on XRP-spot ETFs could be delayed beyond the October deadlines.
This clash creates a high-stakes environment. The constant whale selling is thinning market liquidity, increasing slippage for large trades, and contributing to negative sentiment in derivatives markets. For now, the market is in a “wait-and-see” mode. The path forward for XRP will be determined by whether the wave of institutional money from an ETF arrives in time to absorb the ongoing distribution from whales, or if the selling pressure will continue to dominate in the near term.
