Despite a landmark launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF, which attracted significant capital, the price of XRP has struggled to sustain upward momentum. The market is now navigating a complex battle between institutional inflows and persistent selling pressure, with its short-term trajectory hinging on a few critical technical levels.
The Institutional Paradox: Strong Flows, Weak Price
The launch of the Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) was a resounding success by traditional metrics, recording nearly $59 million in first-day trading volume and attracting approximately $245 million in net inflows on its first day. This demonstrated clear institutional interest and set a record for an ETF debut in 2025.
However, this institutional vote of confidence was met with a paradoxical price drop. Since the ETF’s launch, the price of XRP has declined by around 11%. This divergence highlights a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, where the actual catalyst was overshadowed by profit-taking. The selling pressure was significantly amplified by large holders, or “whales”, who sold approximately 200 million XRP within 48 hours of the ETF’s launch, creating an overwhelming headwind against the incoming ETF-driven demand.
The Technical Crossroads: Key Levels to Watch
Currently, XRP is trading in a precarious position, testing the lower bounds of its recent range. The technical picture has weakened, with the formation of a “death cross” where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average, often interpreted as a bearish signal.
For traders and investors, the immediate future depends on how the price interacts with a few crucial levels:
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Critical Support: The zone between $2.07 and $2.22 is the most important support to watch. A decisive and sustained break below this area, particularly a daily close under $2.10, could trigger a steeper decline toward $1.90 and potentially $1.87.
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Resistance for a Rebound: On the upside, any recovery must first reclaim the $2.31 level to signal a potential short-term bounce toward $2.38. For the bearish structure to be invalidated and a more sustained uptrend to begin, a strong close above the $2.45 – $2.60 resistance zone is needed.
A Glimmer of Hope and the Path Forward
Despite the current pressure, not all signals are negative. On-chain data suggests that the intense selling pressure from long-term holders has begun to subside, with a reported 78% reduction in weekly selling from this cohort. Furthermore, XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has dropped to a level signifying “fear”, which has historically coincided with market bottoms.
The path forward for XRP is a tug-of-war between these competing forces. A stabilization of the broader crypto market, particularly Bitcoin above key levels, is likely a prerequisite for a sustained XRP recovery. For now, the $2.10 – $2.22 support band is the key battleground. Its defense is crucial for preventing a deeper correction, while its breach could accelerate losses. Investors should monitor price action around these levels and watch for a resurgence in buying volume to signal the next significant move.
