Despite a significant wave of investors taking profits, XRP has shown resilience with a strong price rebound, fueled by anticipation of key institutional developments. The market is now a battleground where long-term holders locking in gains are being countered by new demand driven by spot ETF speculation.
Profit-Taking Meets Price Resilience
Recent on-chain data reveals a dramatic surge in profit-taking activity within the XRP market. Since late September 2025, the daily realized profit—a measure of the total profit investors are securing through sales—has skyrocketed by 240%, jumping from approximately $65 million to $220 million per day.
What makes this trend particularly notable is its context. Unlike previous cycles where investors sold into price rallies, this wave of profit-taking has occurred alongside a price decline from its September high of $3.09 to around $2.30. Market analysts at Glassnode describe this pattern as “distribution into weakness, not strength,” suggesting that some long-term holders are opting to preserve capital as market sentiment softens.
However, this substantial selling pressure has not prevented a recovery. XRP recently surged by over 12% in a single day, climbing back to trade around $2.56. This rebound indicates that new demand is entering the market, effectively absorbing the sell-side pressure and highlighting a fierce struggle between early investors cashing out and new buyers establishing positions.
Catalysts for the Rebound
This influx of new demand is not without reason. The rally appears to be primarily fueled by growing institutional interest and a positive shift in market structure.
A major driver is the accelerating momentum toward a spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Major financial institutions like Grayscale, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton have filings under review by regulators. The recent launch of other XRP-related investment products, such as the Rex Shares-Osprey XRPR ETF, which saw $38 million in initial trade volume, demonstrates the pent-up institutional demand that could provide strong price support.
From a technical perspective, some analysts point to a strengthening long-term foundation. One analysis notes that on a 3-month chart, XRP has built a sustained base above key Ichimoku Cloud levels for nearly a year—a first in its history that signals a powerful underlying bull trend.
The Road to $3 and Beyond
For traders and investors, the path forward hinges on a few critical factors. The market is currently facing stiff technical resistance in the $2.60 to $2.80 zone. A decisive break above this barrier, especially the 100-day Simple Moving Average near $2.80, is widely seen as the key to unlocking a retest of the $3.00 psychological level.
The potential approval of spot XRP ETFs remains the most significant looming catalyst. Such an event would open a massive regulated channel for institutional investment, potentially stabilizing sentiment and reversing the current downtrend by countering the profit-taking pressure.
In essence, the current market dynamic presents a clear narrative. While a cohort of early investors is capitalizing on gains, creating headwinds for the price, the market is simultaneously being bolstered by strong technical structures and the potent prospect of an ETF-driven institutional boom. The battle between these forces will determine whether XRP can consolidate its gains and finally secure a lasting position above $3.
