XRP briefly traded above $2 after a wave of institutional inflows and renewed technical momentum, shifting the token’s narrative from legal overhang to a market asset.
Spot XRP ETFs launched in the U.S. in late 2025 absorbed about $1.3 billion within 50 days of their mid‑November debut, registering 43 consecutive trading days of net inflows, according to industry data cited in the source material. By early January seven spot ETFs together managed more than $2 billion and held roughly 793 million XRP in custody.
Those inflows followed an August settlement between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that, as reported, cleared a major legal obstacle and catalyzed institutional allocation. Major institutional forecasts reflected the new backdrop. Standard Chartered’s digital‑assets unit, led by Geoffrey Kendrick, projected an aggressive pathway — a multi‑year roadmap that included an $8 target for the end of 2026.
Other model‑based and consensus estimates ranged widely, from sub‑$2 risk‑adjusted scenarios to averages near $3.90 and algorithmic means in the $5 range.
Technical picture and near‑term risks
Technically, XRP reclaimed its 50‑day simple moving average in the first week of January, a signal often interpreted as a shift toward upward momentum. Price action stalled near $2.40 on Jan. 6 and subsequently pulled back; futures traders highlighted that a sustained acceptance above that level would be required to confirm a broader trend change.
Balanced exchange volume Z‑scores hovered slightly above average, indicating activity that was not purely speculative. That said, whale behaviour has been an offsetting force: more than $100 million in net whale outflows were recorded between Jan. 4–7, 2026.
“A truly meaningful market shift will likely require sustained acceptance well above the $2.40 level,” said Dom, a futures trader cited in the market commentary.
Fundamentally, Ripple’s infrastructure moves — including the nascent XRPL EVM sidechain and strategic acquisitions intended to serve institutional flows — add an adoption narrative that complements ETF‑driven demand. Total value locked on the new sidechain remained low in early January 2026, however, signalling that product and developer adoption have yet to scale.
Investors will watch ETF inflows and large‑holder behaviour as the principal determinants of whether XRP can extend its January momentum into a sustained run.
A convincing close above $2.40 on strong volume and a persistent drop in whale selling would increase the probability of revisiting 2025 highs; absent those signs, price action could remain range‑bound despite sizable institutional interest.
