TL;DR
Bernstein sets a $67 price target, implying 67 percent upside.
Figure pivots from home equity lending to tokenized credit markets.
Loan originations reached 1.34 billion dollars, up 108 percent annually.
Figure Technology Solutions shares have accumulated gains close to 10% over the past month. Despite the advance, Bernstein’s analysis indicates that the current price does not reflect the profound transformation the company is executing. The investment bank reiterates an “Outperform” rating and sets a target price of $67, a potential revaluation of 67% from current levels.
The thesis does not rest on a cyclical improvement in traditional business, but rather on a deliberate migration from mortgage-backed credit line origination toward a technology platform combining blockchain infrastructure and artificial intelligence-based credit markets.
Tokenization and the On-Chain Credit Layer
Figure is building a tokenization layer that converts loans into on-chain assets that settle in real time. The process transforms illiquid credit into negotiable instruments and exposes the company to an addressable market that Bernstein estimates at $4 trillion. This figure encompasses annual origination volume across mortgages, auto loans, home equity lines of credit, and small business financing. The company already operates in the vehicle segment through its Hastra unit, which connects tokenized products with decentralized finance liquidity.
Traditional Credit Business Shows Strong Growth
In parallel, the traditional credit business shows compelling growth figures. Loan origination volume in April reached $1.34 billion, a 108% increase versus the same month last year. This marks the second consecutive month with origination exceeding $1 billion. Bernstein’s projections place total annual volume at $16.5 billion for 2027, compared to $8.4 billion estimated for 2025. These numbers sustain balance sheet expansion and fuel the asset flow that Figure can tokenize, turning origination growth into a dual engine: it generates commission revenue while simultaneously creating inventory for the new platform model.
The Gap Between Current Adoption and On-Chain Potential
The global real-world tokenized assets market barely touches $5.5 billion in total value. The comparison with $4 trillion in annual credit origination reveals an overwhelming gap. Projects like Centrifuge already move credit and Treasury bonds to blockchain networks, but the space remains in an early phase.
Figure starts with an advantage because it controls origination, tokenization technology, and proprietary settlement infrastructure built on blockchain. The value of vertical integration does not appear in traditional fintech metrics, and the opacity of this structure explains part of the discount Bernstein identifies.
From Originator to Credit Infrastructure Operator
The bank’s report underscores that the company has ceased being a mortgage credit line originator to become an operator of programmable credit infrastructure. The risk profile changes because future revenues will increasingly depend on platform usage fees and on-chain credit market activity, rather than being limited to intermediation spreads. Investors valuing Figure solely for its loan portfolio miss the scalability that tokenization offers. Once smart contracts execute settlement and credit fractionalization, the same capital can rotate faster and generate recurring yields without linear balance sheet growth.
Risks and Future Prospects
The bet is not without risks. Regulation of tokenized assets remains uncertain terrain, and the liquidity of on-chain secondary markets has not yet reached the depth of traditional markets. However, the trajectory of origination volumes and entry into verticals like auto lending suggest that Figure maintains the capacity to scale while building the financial pipes of the new system.
Conclusion: Perception vs. Fundamentals
Figure shares trade at a multiple that discounts a modest growth scenario, anchored in fintech legacy. But the credit tokenization plan advances with origination volumes growing at triple-digit rates and a roadmap pointing toward a $4 trillion market. The current on-chain assets market is still tiny, giving first-mover operators with scale a competitive advantage difficult to replicate.
Bernstein is right to separate the value of the technology platform from conventional credit business. The discount in valuation appears more a perception error than a reflection of weak fundamentals.
